Alabama’s Final Four Journey: Blending Analytics with Tradition

On April 1st, Nate Oats found his team, the Crimson Tide, holding the top spot in the nation for a substantial portion of the 2022-23 season. However, their hopes were dashed in the NCAA Tournament, leading to their departure from Louisville and allowing San Diego State to advance to a regional final.

This year, the Crimson Tide faced a different challenge, being perceived more as a rebuilding team. Initially slated fifth in the Southeastern Conference during preseason predictions, this shift occurred following the departure of NBA lottery pick Brandon Miller. Oats embarked on the season with a roster comprising four transfers, five freshmen, and three new starters.

Guided by homegrown point guard Mark Sears, Nate Oats, who received approval for his third contract at Alabama in February, steered the team through the challenges. Despite facing setbacks with 11 losses throughout the season, Alabama managed to assemble the perfect combination of elements, propelling the Crimson Tide to their inaugural Final Four appearance in program history.

Reflecting on their journey, guard Aaron Estrada, a transfer from Hofstra, expressed, “They counted us out, really, from the very first game. And like I said, I’ve been doubted like my whole life, under-recruited, looked upon. And I think that it just added more fuel to everybody really.” In the regional final against Clemson, Estrada showcased his prowess with 10 points, eight rebounds, and five assists.

Since his arrival in 2019, following a successful 32-win season at Buffalo, Nate Oats aimed to incorporate Alabama’s rich tradition into the foundation of the basketball program. Recognizing Alabama’s prominence as a football powerhouse under the leadership of now-retired coach Nick Saban, Oats sought to leverage this tradition by studying Saban’s methods.

“I went and watched practices. I sat in on staff meetings. I shadowed him for a day. I went on road trips with him to see how they operated. I tried to learn as much as I could,” Oats explained. “It never nagged me or bothered me that football was huge at Alabama. I loved it. It’s better for recruiting. It’s better for everything for us.”

Oats embraced the significance of football at Alabama and saw it as an asset for basketball recruiting and overall program development. He continued, “I tried to learn from it. And different people would make comments. Football, football. But only 18 national championships behind them. We have a few to catch up. Let’s just keep grinding. Let’s get to a Final Four first, and let’s put ourselves on a big stage.”

The grand stage, set at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., eagerly awaits Saturday night. Nate Oats and his Alabama squad secured their place by defeating Clemson 89-82 in the regional final, setting up a national semifinal showdown with defending champion UConn. Their journey to this point has been characterized by what some opponents have described as “inefficient” or unorthodox offensive strategies.

Throughout his coaching career, Oats has emphasized a love for shooting 3-pointers, a sentiment that traces back to his successes in high school in Detroit and at the University of Buffalo. However, what sets his approach apart is the near elimination of 2-point shot attempts outside of the rim area. While unconventional, this strategy has proven remarkably effective.

“We’ve got some different options to get efficient shots. They don’t always have to come flying up and down taking quick 3s,” Oats explained. “Quick 3s are efficient, if you get them from the right shooters. There are other efficient shots too. We’ve got different packages to get efficient shots. Guys come in the summer. We teach them how to play efficiently. We don’t eliminate inefficient shots from their arsenal right away. I don’t want guys second-guessing themselves. We gradually educate them on how to be the most efficient player. Brandon Miller became pretty efficient and moved from, like, projected 23rd pick in the draft to the second pick in the draft.”

For the first four NCAA Tournament games, Oats brought in an outside analytics firm to assist the team. This third-party outfit studies game situations and results, helping the Crimson Tide understand the how and why of their system.

“I think you can win playing this way. They win playing this way in the NBA. We’ve just proven you can make a Final Four run,” Oats remarked, commending Alabama’s 10-of-15 shooting from 3-point range in the second half against Clemson. “And you know what, UConn is a pretty good team and they play similarly. They play through the post a lot, but Danny is big on offensive efficiency, playing the right way, getting the right shots. Their defense is a lot better than ours. We have to figure out how to beat them. But I think more college teams are starting to play a more efficient style of basketball like we’ve been playing.”

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